Pensées (15)
How The War Will End, Why MH-17 Killed Russia.
⚡️Ruschia Blames NAFO for Bridge Drop.
"A shark inflatable was found by Kerch Bridge," said fishy spokesruschist Peskov.
Likely Ruschists will destroy Kerch Bridge to prevent its people in Crimea from retreating.
Ruschia manufactures hostage situations like bakers bake bread.
Addiction to attacking itself
to scapegoat others; to "prove" "something" about "something" to the West about Ukraine;
to provide content for its media; to provoke in naive westerners the idea "no-one would be that stupid [as to shell its own forces occupying, say, Europe's largest nuclear power station] ergo it must be Ukraine; and to confuse its own ranks is at a stage where even Freud would be lost.
No-one in Ruschist hierarchy from Putin down to the lowliest squaddie has any idea of what is true.
They live in a Hall of Mirrors.
For more on what “NAFO “ is see Pensées (12):
⚡️Why MH-17 Killed Russia.
After Russia shot down MH-17 nine years ago today, appeasing E.U. powers joined U.S. sanctions against Russia.
This forced Russia to reassess its readiness to continue a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Two weeks later Russia withdrew from Severodonetsk and several other key Ukrainian cities.
In September 2014 Russia was forced to sign Minsk I ceasefire agreement by the unexpectedly stiff response by volunteer batallions in Ukraine and by international sanctions.
Minsk gave Ukraine and Russia eight years to prepare for another attempted full-scale invasion.
Within days of Russia's full-scale invasion of 2022 it became clear that Russia had wasted those eight years, while Ukraine had grown stronger.
Slava Ukraine.
⚡️Strelkov/Girkin is responsible for Russia's loss in the war.
Like, the Chef and Putin, he hunts for scapegoats, like cats hunt for mice.
Like those dunces, he too can't quite face his complicity in this fiasco.
On 4th July 2014 Girkin had to retreat from Slovyansk. A "Superfluous Man" in the mould of Dostoyevsky's "Idiot" Girkin didn't have the leverage among his FSB colleagues to get reinforcements (Bakhmut was a gateway to Slovyansk which is a gateway to Kramatorsk: all are now unattainable goals for Russia).
On 17th July 2014 Girkin and three fellow terrorists downed MH17, as the court in the Hague found in its November 2022 judgment. Netherlands was the first country to announce its willingness to provision Ukraine with F-16s.
Russia retreated from Severodonetsk (and other important Luhansk cities) on 22nd July 2014 in the wake of stringent post-MH17 sanctions.
Prior to MH17, European countries had been unwilling to join the United States stringent regime of sanctions introduced within hours of Russia's occupation of Crimea.
Since February 24th 2022 Russia has expended 75,000 of its own soldiers' souls trying to retake areas of Luhansk it retreated from in the wake of MH17.
Russia agreed to a ceasefire in early September 2014 (which Girkin calls the "Minsk Betrayal"). Again, there is a solid relationship between MH17 and Russia's weakened position militarily and geopolitically that led to Minsk.
So Girkin is, like Putin and the Chef, the archetypal bildungsroman dunce. Each morning, Girkin, Putin and the Chef go forth on yet another episodic adventure without learning a thing.
At the root of every fiasco they get involved in is the Original Sin: they can't face their own congenital incompetence.
So they scapegoat non-root causes for each fiasco they're responsible for.
This leads to greater fiascos.
They're caught in their own private cycles of hell without having the self-knowledge to know how to escape.
⚡️How The War Will End.
First Crimean War Ended With A Treaty, Yet Second Crimean War Will End As The First Gulf War Ended - a 🧵.
Musvovy kept pirating ships in the Black Sea AND tried to passportize Christians of all nationalities in the Holyland.
Eventually even Muscovy's allies (e.g. Austro-Hungarian Empire) united into a Coalition of the Willing against Muscovy: @EmmanuelMacron, @MFATurkiye, England, Sardinia (@ItalyMFA), @MFA_Austria, and Prussia (@OlafScholz).
Muscovy has always had a gift for friendship!
After it was beaten in the first Crimean War, the 1856 Treaty of Paris allowed Muscovy to continue occupying Crimea (where it continued its genocide of indigenous Ukrainian Tatars), provided Crimea was a demilitarised zone.
By 1870 it was clear that Russia was remilitarising Crimea and began to interfere with Black Sea shipping.
The end of the Second Crimean War will not be a Treaty of Paris II - that ship has sailed.
Had Muscovy retreated from most of Ukraine after losing the Battle for Kyiv, Kharkhiv, or Kherson, it's possible Great Powers might have pressured Ukraine to compromise (Why Crimean Compromise Won't Work: twitter.com/decodingtrolls…).
Since 2014, 🇫🇷, 🇩🇪 & Muscovy had in mind a Treaty of Paris 2.0.
🇺🇦 would keep Luhansk & Donetsk, but cede Crimea.
🇺🇦 great unsung success was never to surrender to this pressure from these so-called Great Powers.
@poroshenko & @ZelenskyyUa called their bluff.
Ukraine though would never have compromised. I know this because I've spoken to hundreds of elected officials in eastern Ukraine 2015-2022.
Now, Ukraine's allies are all in and understand the importance of Muscovy being ground to dust so that it can never threaten the area west of its borders again.
Muscovy will never conceded, formally.
So the model of how the first Gulf War ended will probably be how this war ends.
Impact of Muscovy's capitulation in 2022/2023 will be akin to Iraq's capitulation in 1991 (see analysis of Iraq's ambiguous capitulation letter to UN Security Council in 1991 below).
The key moment is when Ukraine will possess enough NATO weaponry to enforce a No Fly Zone accross Ukraine & its territorial waters (incl Azov Sea).
Ukraine's will send a formal letter to Muscovy to notify Muscovy that its complete withdrawal of forces from Ukraine constitutes Muscovy's formal surrender.
And that Ukraine will strike Muscovy ANY time Ukraine detects armed or unarmed interference with exercise of Ukraine's sovereignty.
Letter will stipulate necessity of returning Ukraine's forcibly transported citizens and the use of Muscovy's $1.5t held outside Muscovy to compensate 42m Ukrainians for the mess.
Ukrainian air strikes will punish Muscovy every time it interferes, in any way inside MFA_Ukraine, including in information warfare / Disinfolklore.net operations.
Eventually, new regime in Muscovy will credibly seek graduated relief from sanctions, in exchange for formal guarantees to respect intl law.
#NAFO member Ukraine will join @EUCouncil & @NATO. NATO will then be accepted into @Official_NAFO
Muscovy's suffering over future decades will prove respecting laws of war & intl law mandatory.
⚡️Why "Crimea Compromise" Won't Work.
Many friends of Ukraine like @MarkGaleotti consider a Crimea Compromise plausible end to Russia's war against civilisation.
Senior policy wonks who, unlike me who spent seven years as a diplomat on the ground trying to make Minsk I & Minsk II work, breezily see 2 steps to Crimea Compromise.
Each is doomed.
I know this because they're projecting precisely what failed in Minsk I and Minsk II to stop Russian genocide into Crimea, & breezily expecting different results.
1. Referendum in Crimea: Minsk proposed Ukraine regains control of its borders and Russian-occupiers hold elections in occupied Luhansk & Donetsk. Russia never gave Ukraine control of its borders. I worked on logistics for a free and fair ballot in Russia-occupied Ukraine.
In Luhansk alone it would have cost billions of $ and thousands of NATO / EU militia / soldiers to protect voters, candidates, and voting locations.
Despite all that security, Russia would have been able to disrupt the free & fair election. If NATO / EU won't protect 100,000 killed civilians in Mariupol or 10,000+ killed civilians in Severodonetsk, is it credible to suggest they're ready to enable a free and fair ballot in occupied Crimea?
Minsk I and Minsk II foresaw 1.5m Ukrainians who fled Russian occupation of Luhansk & Donetsk voting. Russia would not allow this. It is impossible to run a free and fair election with Russia in occupation. Impossible. We thought through EVERY possibility: Result? Full-Scale invasion.
This is what Putin said of Minsk I and Minsk II failures (he blames Ukraine, but Russia is 100% at fault):
"On Feb. 8, 2022, Putin addressed Ukraine's hesitancy to fulfill the Minsk Peace Agreements during a major Russian troop buildup with the loaded phrase, "like it or not, take it, my beauty." A reference to a vulgar Russian rhyme about necrophiliac rape, implying an
intention to inflict similar destruction on Ukraine and a view of Ukraine as a corpse."
Crimea Compromise proponents, without first-hand knowledge of how hard we tried to make Minsk I and Minsk II work, who breezily suggest a referendum just don't understand the Devil is IN the details.
So apart from the international law implications (Taiwan, Balkans,...) and the total opposition of 42m Ukrainians who will NEVER capitulate (we went through this with Minsk I and Minsk II (see photograph) Crimea Compromise is Pie in the Sky thinking.
2. Ukraine gets into NATO in exchange for giving away Crimea.
This misses the reason Ukrainians want to be in NATO - to protect its territorial integrity. Ukraine is not Finland in the 20th century.
We now have genocide convention, UN Charter and the world's best army facing a degraded Russian force.
In ANY scenario, Russia, as with Minsk I and Minsk II will violate any agreement / treaty made. If NATO will not credibly enforce international law today in Ukraine, Ukraine is not stupid enough to entrust its security to NATO after conceding Crimea.
Anyone tempted to promote the Crimea Compromise should have a long and detailed conversation with people like me who spent seven years trying to make Minsk I and Minsk II work.
Equilibrium in Europe will result from only one outcome of this war: Ukraine regains control over ALL of its territory. Plan accordingly.