It’s five days since we all spent Saturday watching smoke over Russia’s unlawfully built Kerch Bridge connecting occupied Crimea from Russia.
Amazingly we still don’t know the extent of the damage (if any) from supposed Ukrainian strikes using (according to Russia) modified cold war era S-200 missiles.
Yesterday rumours circulated that the bridge finally was done. According google maps as at time of writing (Wednesday morning), the bridge is still, highly unusually, closed.
Apart from the bridge the only other way to get materiel or tourists out of Crimea is by crossing contested territory in southern Kherson and Zaporozhzhia. Ukraine blew two of the three bridges connecting Crimea to Kherson. This means those leaving Crimea (mostly supplying Russia’s forces in southern Ukraine) have to go along tiny rubbish roads.
Russia has even been encouraging tourism in Crimea even during the war. So there are also first-hand accounts circulating of Ruschist tourists’ voyages out of Crimea through the war zone of southern Kherson and Zaporozhzhia - let’s just say you’d definitely opt for post Brexit Dover over that journey. Tourists are for example advised not to stop even for loo breaks and fresh drinking water is reported to be extremely expensive.
So we can but hope for definitively good news to emerge soon that the bridge is finally done. Also at time of writing it has been reported that Russian artillery use over the past twenty-four hours was unusually low. Let’s hope this continues. This may well be an early warning indicator that Ukraine’s strategy of destroying Russia’s supply lines (including access routes to and from Crimea) is finally bearing fruit.
⚡️First Crimean War kicked off after Muscovy kept invading ships in international waters in the Black Sea.
In Treaty of Paris 1856 (that ended that war) Muscovy agreed in perpetuity to stop interfering with Black Sea shipping.
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Ukraine didn't have naval drones in 1856.
Ukraine's use of offensive naval drones in the Black and Azov Seas is a Black Swan event for Russia.
I foresee Ukraine gaining mass swarm strike capabilities, relatively soon.
Ruschia's vulnerable to Ukraine's sea power is now permanent.
There's a new sheriff in town.
News that NATO secretary general’s chief of staff thinks Ukraine could swop Crimea for NATO membership serves one goal: it give Ruschia hope that if it just keeps on investing its declining resources in Ukraine, it might outlast western will to support Ukraine.
It’s of course a preposterous idea.
If NATO will not credibly enforce international law today in Ukraine and on the Black Sea, in Poland, and Romania, Ukraine is not stupid enough to entrust its security to NATO after conceding Crimea.
Beware of wolves in sheep's clothing: there are many “experts” out there who portray support and knowledge of Ukraine. Then (as for example “Russian expert” and False Ukraine Expert Mark Galeotti did again the other day) they throw in some concern-trolling about Ukrainian “exhaustion” and suggest in time Ukraine might surrender Crimea in exchange for NATO membership.
Take this to the bank from someone who spent seven years speaking to hundreds of Ukrainian elected officials in eastern Ukraine: This will NEVER happen.
If Russia stole 800,000 English school children, would the English surrender the Isle of Wight to Russia?
Under the grain deal, Muscovy was already delaying inspection of 100+ ships in Istanbul.
Just as Muscovy delayed Azov Sea ships at Kerch Bridge April 2018-2019 on bogus pretexts.
Just as Muscovy delayed daily passage of 10,000 Luhansk residents at Stanitsia Luhanaka bridge Mar 2015-2019.
Ukraine handled the indignity of the Grain Deal with perfect grace.
A sovereign subjecting it's ships to inspection by an aggressor reminds me of the indignities of Minsk I & II.
Like the Stanford Marshmallow test proved - those who are patient get Crimea back.
⚡️What keeps Russia in Ukraine?
Crimea Kompromat.
By 1st March 2022, Russia had already demonstrated sufficient military incompetence to convince me, Russia would never conquer Ukraine. Yet, after retreating from Kyiv, Kharkhiv, Kup'yansk, Kherson,... Russia ploughs on.
A nightmare scenario for Ukraine would be a sensible Russia. A Russia which had immediately withdrawn from Ukraine in early March 2022 or after any of its subsequent humiliating military defeats.
Had Russia retreated from Ukraine with its army - men and materiel largely intact - before Putin-understanders like Scholz and Macron betrayed Putin, Russia would still be a threat. The risk for Ukraine is still there that Russia will declare victory and suddenly leave Ukraine
Only it can't: Crimea.
Crimea, like Rasputin, has hypnotised Russia into remaining long enough to suffer complete defeat.
I can envisage Russia withdrawing from all of Ukraine, except Crimea. And had this happened at any time before, say, January 2023 or blowing Khakovka Dam, it's possible Ukraine would not have been given the materiel to blow Russia out of Crimea. Now, whatever happens, Ukraine will keep hammering Russia until the last Russian Nazi leaves.
Russia thought it could use Crimea as a hostage. Instead, Crimea, the Siren, is holding Russia hostage, until its last tank and soldier is turned to dust. A biblical scale parable for the ages.
For a thousand years little Muscovites will be taught to tremble at the mere thought of travelling west across the Don towards Ukraine. "Dragons live there."
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